Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The average count of everyday killings per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official figures. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide data may not signal enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, security analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it may mask periods when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.