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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.