‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and officials say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.